Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
